Utah State and New Mexico State battle for WAC supremacy

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Reno, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded Utah State tries to make it back-to- back Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles tonight as the squad clashes with the New Mexico State Aggies in the 27th-annual event at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno.

On Friday night the Utah State Aggies left no doubt that they deserved a spot in the championship game as they completely dominated Louisiana Tech by a final of 85-55. It was the third straight game in which USU had scored at least 81 points and represented the program's 17th straight victory overall since opening the conference schedule with back-to-back setbacks against NMSU and LaTech, coincidentally. Utah State began its quest for a second-straight crown with an 84-60 romp over eighth-seeded Boise State on Thursday afternoon.

As for the New Mexico State Aggies, the third seed in this year's tourney, they first took care of San Jose State two nights ago with ease in a 90-69 final and continued their spirited play with an 80-79 triumph over host team Nevada in a matchup that came down to the wire last night.

USU currently owns a 37-32 edge over NMSU after crushing the visiting Aggies at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan just last week by a score of 81-63. In the conference opener back on January 2nd, NMSU posted a low-scoring 55-52 win over Utah State at the Pan American Center in Las Cruces. The teams also have a history in past WAC title games, as New Mexico State handed Utah State a 72-70 decision for the championship back in 2007.

Trailing by one with just seconds to play, Jahmar Young took control for the Aggies and put them into the win column when he sank a jumper with five seconds remaining in regulation. One of four players to score in double figures for the Aggies, Young finished with 15 points, five assists and four rebounds as he shot a mere 4-of-15 from the floor. Troy Gillenwater logged a season-high 21 points and collected eight boards off the bench, Wendell McKines posted a double-double with 16 points and 10 boards and Jonathan Gibson accounted for 10 points as well. Even though the Aggies have several starters who can take control of a game and lead them to the win column this season, the player to watch tonight is Gillenwater because he's been able to bring a burst of energy off the bench since he has played in barely one-third of all the games for the program. He is averaging 14.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game for a team that is putting up a whopping 78.9 ppg, but also allowing 78.3 ppg. Gibson (17.7 ppg) is the three-point specialist with his 102 conversions this season, but one can't sleep on Young (20.5 ppg) because he too has had huge success on the perimeter with his 71 treys in 2009-10.

USU allowed LaTech to take an early two-point lead in the opening moments of their meeting on Friday, but after that the Bulldogs were forced to play catch-up the rest of the way as they shot just 8-of-27 from the field in the first half and 34.5 percent for the game, compared to a staggering 58.8 percent by one of the top shooting teams in the nation. Jared Quayle posted 16 points on 4-of-6 behind the three-point line in limited minutes, while Brady Jardine came off the bench to tally 13 points. Pooh Williams accounted for 10 points before being sent to the bench in order to rest the starters once it became obvious that USU was moving on. Tai Wesley, who tallied eight points, six assists and five rebounds, remains the leading scorer (13.7 ppg) and rebounder (6.5 rpg) for the program and because of his close proximity to the glass at the offensive end of the floor he has been shooting 57.9 percent from the field this season. Quayle (12.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 140 assists) is shooting better from three-point range (.433) than he is the floor overall (.410), which is just one of the reasons why Utah State is one of the most accurate three-point shooting teams in the nation this season at 42.4 percent.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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