TCU seeks upset of BYU in Mountain West quarterfinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rematch of the regular-season finale has 14th-ranked and second-seeded BYU taking on the seventh-seeded TCU Horned Frogs in the quarterfinals of the 2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament tonight at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

BYU, which has just one tournament title to show for its efforts over the first 10 years of the league's existence, has a record of 12-9 in the event overall. The Cougars have had one of their most successful seasons ever, sporting 28 wins in 32 opportunities and putting up 13 league wins in 16 chances. The Achilles' heel for the program this season came in the form of New Mexico to which the Cougars lost twice.

As for the Horned Frogs, a squad that has won just once in five tries in this tournament since joining the league, they dropped two straight and four of their last five games to close out the regular season and finished at just 5-11 in league play. Four of the team's league victories came against Wyoming and Air Force, the two weakest programs in the league.

The Cougars have dominated this series over the years with 15 wins in 18 opportunities. BYU won at home this season with a 76-56 final the first week of February, and then crushed the Frogs in the regular-season finale in Fort Worth with a resounding 107-77 victory.

The winner of this meeting will be back in action on Friday, taking on the survivor of the Utah/UNLV contest in the semifinals.

Ronnie Moss is the glue to the Horned Frogs this season, not only leading the group in scoring with his 14.6 ppg, but also responsible for 185 assists over the course of 31 outings which placed him among the nation's elite in that category. Add to that the fact that Moss shot 37.3 percent from three-point range and was the most productive perimeter shooters for the group and it is easy to see how he earned all-conference honors this season. Zvonko Buljan (12,4 ppg) was solid on the glass for the program with his 8.6 rpg, which is all the more reason why he should remain in the paint and not out on the perimeter where he shot only 26.9 percent. Edvinas Ruzgas (10.7 ppg) is really the one who should be setting himself on the outside where he made good on 41.8 percent of his tries for a team that attempted nearly 700 three-point shots during the regular season.

As if it were going to be a surprise, Jimmer Fredette earned All-MWC First- Team honors after he posted 20.6 ppg this season and delivered on a whopping 141 assists in his 30 appearances for the Cougars. A tough defensive matchup for many opponents, Fredette was comfortable both slashing to the rim and drawing contact, resulting in his 171-of-194 (.881) shooting at the free-throw line, as well as setting up on the perimeter and knocking down 47.2 percent of his three-point tries. Jackson Emery (12.6 ppg) plays a similar style to Fredette with his 4.4 rpg, 87 assists and 74-of-176 out on the perimeter. Relegated to coming off the bench for the majority of the season, Jonathan Tavernari made it work for him as he finished with 10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg and also 40 percent shooting behind the three-point line himself as he earned the MWC's Sixth Man award. Put it all together and you have a BYU group that was one of the best in the nation with a scoring margin of almost 19 ppg.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.