Magic visit Heat in possible playoff preview

Basketball Betting Lines

03/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In-state rivals square off in the shadow of South Beach Thursday when the Miami Heat play host to the playoff-bound Orlando Magic.

The Magic have been on a roll recently and are currently the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt as well as the leaders of the Southeast Division, four games ahead of Atlanta. Orlando also comes into tonight's game having clinched their fourth playoff berth in as many years after a host of teams lost on Tuesday.

The Heat, meanwhile, are battling for a playoff berth and currently are seventh in the East, 3 1/2 games over ninth place Chicago. If the Magic and Miami both stay in their current positions, the two teams would meet in the first round of the playoffs.

Last night in Orlando Vince Carter recorded 24 points and eight assists, leading the Magic in a 110-84 rout of the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup between the NBA's two hottest teams.

Both teams came in having won eight of nine, but it was the Magic who never trailed in a game they dominated from start to finish. Rashard Lewis added 20 points, while Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick each poured in 10.

Dwight Howard contributed with nine points and seven rebounds for the defending Eastern Conference champs, which has won three straight over San Antonio for the first time in franchise history.

"We can't be satisfied just getting to the playoffs at this point, with what we went through last year," Nelson said. "To have a taste of the championship, you want to win it. It's what we're playing for. We're not one of those teams that are happy all year and let's celebrate just because we made the playoffs. We're one of the teams that wants to win it, to have a legit chance."

Miami also played the Spurs in its most recent affair but came up on the losing end of a 88-76 decision on Tuesday. Manu Ginobili scored 22 points in that one to lead San Antonio.

Dwyane Wade poured in 28 points and had five assists for the Heat, who are now 3-1 on a six-game homestand and have won six of seven overall.

Jermaine O'Neal kicked in 13 points and Udonis Haslem 10. Miami was done in by a 38.5-percent showing from the floor.

"They came out shooting the ball well and playing well. Manu (Ginobili) made some big shots to make sure we didn't get back into the game," said Wade.

Orlando snapped a two-game losing streak to the Heat with a 96-80 in central Florida last month and has won 13 of the past 16 meetings in the series.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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