Braves hold on to beat Nationals, extend win streak to five

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad's first home run of his career was a pinch-hit, three-run shot to help the Atlanta Braves take a 9-8 win over the Washington Nationals in the opener of a three-game set.

Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar and Matt Diaz each had two RBI while Martin Prado crossed the plate three times for the Braves, who are on a season-high five- game winning streak.

Kenshin Kawakami started on the mound, but lasted just 4 1/3 innings as he was charged with five runs -- four earned -- on six hits with three walks and six strikeouts. Boone Logan (1-0) got the win for throwing 1 2/3 perfect innings.

Adam Dunn hit the 299th home run of his career while Nyjer Morgan went 0-for-4 with a walk, one stolen base and a run scored in his debut with the Nationals, who have dropped four straight and six of seven.

Ross Detwiler was tagged for five runs on 10 hits with two walks and a strikeout in just 3 1/3 innings. Jesus Colome (1-1) was saddled with the loss.

The game had gone back and forth through the first several innings, but the Braves took the lead back in the seventh. With Colome on to start the inning, Escobar led off with a walk. The next two batters recorded outs, but Casey Kotchman kept the inning alive with a walk and Conrad launched a pitch into the right field bullpen for an 8-5 lead.

Washington got a run back in the bottom of the frame with a sacrifice fly from Cristian Guzman, but Atlanta got it back in the eighth when Diaz worked a bases loaded walk to force home Prado.

Rafael Soriano came on in the ninth to close the game and issued walks to the first two batters. He retired the next two, but Guzman ripped a double down the right field line to make it a one-run game. However, Josh Bard grounded out to first to end the game and give Soriano his eighth save of the season.

After making a nice catch to end the top of the first, Morgan led off the home half of the frame with a walk and then stole second. The next two batters recorded outs, but Dunn kept the inning alive with a walk and Josh Willingham followed with a single to score Morgan for a 1-0 lead.

Atlanta, though, got the run back in the second as Brian McCann led off with a double and later scored on a single from Diaz.

Washington grabbed the lead back in the second on RBI singles from Ross Detwiler and Nick Johnson, but in the top of the third, Atlanta again tied the game thanks to an RBI double from Jones and a run-scoring single off the bat of Escobar.

Dunn led off the bottom of the third by drilling a 1-0 pitch into the upper deck of right field for a 4-3 lead.

However, the Braves again answered in the fourth to take the lead back. With Prado on second, Jones chipped a single to left bring him in. McCann then singled and, after Tyler Clippard took over duties on the mound, Escobar doubled to left to score Jones for a 5-4 lead.

The Nationals knotted the game again in the fifth. With one out, Willingham was hit by a pitch. Guzman then hit a grounder that Kawakami fielded, but he threw the ball away and the Nationals had runners at second and third. Josh Bard then grounded out to bring home Willingham to tie the game.

Game Notes

Atlanta has won five of seven against the Nationals this season...Morgan was acquired from the Pirates on Tuesday along with pitcher Sean Burnett for outfielder Lastings Milledge and pitcher Joel Hanrahan...Atlanta stranded 13 men on base while the Nationals left eight on base...Morgan now has 19 stolen bases on the season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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