Blue Jays try to add to Orioles' misery

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista may still not be a familiar name among many baseball fans, but the Baltimore Orioles know all too well how good the Toronto Blue Jays slugger has been this season.

The major league's leading home run hitter in 2010 will attempt to go deep for a fourth straight game tonight, while Bautista's Blue Jays take aim at yet another victory over the cellar-dwelling Orioles when the American League East foes wrap up a three-game series at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto moved to an astounding 11-0 against the Orioles this season by virtue of last night's 8-2 triumph, with Bautista homering twice and knocking in five runs as part of a 4-for-4 performance at the plate. The two long balls give the All-Star outfielder 30 on the season, and he's homered four times with nine RBI over the Jays' last three contests.

"Nothing different in my swing, just my approach has changed a little bit," said Bautista about his recent success. "I'm starting to get ready a little earlier in the at-bat."

Facing the Orioles has helped Bautista build his career-best numbers as well. In Toronto's 11 victories over Baltimore this season, the 29-year-old has hit .326 (14-for-43) with six homers and 15 RBI.

Vernon Wells chipped in a two-run double and both Fred Lewis and Yunel Escobar collected three hits to help Toronto prevail for the fourth time in its last five games overall. Starting pitcher Ricky Romero (8-7) turned in 7 2/3 effective innings as well, holding the O's to two runs and striking out eight Baltimore hitters.

Kevin Millwood wasn't nearly as effective for Baltimore, with the struggling veteran battered for six runs (five earned) on 10 hits over a 5 1/3-inning stint.

"I just didn't make very many good pitches and when you are swinging the bat as well as [Bautista] is, if you don't throw a good pitch, he's going to hit it hard," Millwood said.

Adam Jones went 3-for-4 for Baltimore, losers of four in a row and 10 of 12 since the All-Star break, while Nick Markakis had two hits and drove in a run.

Tuesday's setback was also the Orioles' 10th in a row at the Rogers Centre, where Baltimore has now lost in 15 of its last 16 visits.

With the Blue Jays in need of an extra starter due to having played a doubleheader on Sunday, the team will call up Brad Mills from Triple-A Las Vegas to pitch tonight's finale. The 25-year-old lefty made 16 starts for the 51s this season and compiled a 7-4 record with a 4.13 earned run average.

A fourth-round selection by Toronto in the 2007 draft, Mills did make a pair of starts for the Blue Jays last season, with both coming against the Philadelphia Phillies. The results weren't real good, as he was tagged for 12 runs and 14 hits -- including four homers -- over a 7 2/3-inning span while registering a loss and a no-decision.

He'll be opposed tonight by Jeremy Guthrie in what possibly could be the Baltimore hurler's final outing as an Oriole. Considered a potential candidate to be dealt prior to Saturday's trade deadline, the right-hander has helped his value with a pair of solid performances since the All-Star break.

One of those efforts came against the Blue Jays, with Guthrie limiting the Jays to a run and striking out six in a 6 2/3-inning no-decision on July 17. The 31-year-old followed up by yielding just two runs through seven frames to defeat Minnesota on Friday, finally putting an end to a personal two-month winless streak.

The former first-round pick was handed a loss at the Rogers Centre back on May 30 after being reached for four runs in six innings, and is just 2-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 career starts versus Toronto. Guthrie also has struggled on the road during his trying 2010 campaign, having produced a 1-5 record with a 5.01 ERA in 10 away appearances.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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